Gold Nears Record High, LBMA Sees 10% Rise Potential

On Wednesday (October 16th), gold prices edged higher due to the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with market participants awaiting more U.S. economic data to gauge the extent of rate cuts the Federal Reserve might implement in the near term.

As of press time, spot gold had risen by 0.3% to $2,667, just $17 below the all-time high set last month.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for the third consecutive trading day, making non-yielding gold more attractive.

"The easing of U.S. monetary policy is a key change for gold prices, as it lays the foundation for investment demand," said Soni Kumari, a commodity strategist at ANZ Bank. "Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and geopolitical tensions will also continue to support gold."

Investors are looking forward to the release of U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and weekly initial jobless claims data on Thursday for new clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle.

Traders estimate a 97.2% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in November. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that as long as the data meets expectations, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates this year. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that at last month's meeting, he only expected one more 25 basis point rate cut for this year.

Advertisement

According to a survey of the gold industry at a major annual conference, gold is expected to climb to a historical high next year.

At an event held by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in Miami, participants预计 that by the end of October next year, the price of gold will rise to around $2,917.40, about 10% higher than the current level. This figure is the average forecast of a two-day survey of dealers, refiners, and miners conducted by the LBMA during the conference.

In 2024, gold is one of the strongest performing commodities, repeatedly setting records, thanks to its appeal as a safe-haven asset, its role as a tool for wealth diversification, and continued purchases by central banks. Due to the Federal Reserve's shift towards rate cuts, gold's latest peak exceeded $2,685 last month. Typically, non-yielding gold performs better in a low-interest-rate environment. #Gold Technical Analysis#

Furthermore, according to the survey, silver is expected to rise by more than 40% next year, reaching $45.